Small businesses using AI expect to grow and hire more, though the till hasn't caught up with the optimism yet
By Brett Gavaghan, Founder of Adaptd ·
A New York Fed analysis finds US small businesses using AI are more optimistic about hiring and revenue. Only 31% say AI has lifted sales so far.
The short version
- The New York Fed analysed 5,248 US small employers surveyed in late 2025 and published the results on 8 October 2026.
- 46% use AI tools, and users expect more hiring and revenue growth than non-users, but only 31% report higher sales from AI so far.
- Measure what AI changes in your business, like hours saved or enquiries answered, before you bank on growth.
Ask a small business owner who has started using AI how next year looks and you'll get a sunnier answer. The New York Fed now has numbers on that, along with a reminder that expectations aren't results.
What did the New York Fed find?
The New York Fed found that small businesses using AI expect more hiring and revenue growth over the next 12 months than those that don't. Researchers Will Aarons and Asani Sarkar published the analysis on 8 October 2026, using the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey.
46% of firms with at least one employee said they use AI tools, and another 15% planned to within a year. On hiring, AI users had a net expectation of +33 points (the share expecting growth minus the share expecting a fall), against +15 for non-users. On revenue it was +48 against +21. The gap shrinks once firm size and past performance are accounted for, but it stays.
Is AI paying off for small businesses yet?
AI isn't lifting sales for most of these businesses yet: only 31% of AI users reported higher sales from it, and 77% saw no change in labour costs.
The researchers say the study measures expectations, not outcomes, and shows a link rather than proof that AI causes growth. The link was strongest for owners in fair or poor financial shape and for those facing technology challenges, which the authors read as AI helping some businesses get past specific bottlenecks.
What should your business take from it?
Small businesses should use AI on a specific bottleneck and measure the result, rather than expecting it to lift sales by itself.
My take: optimism is free, and 31% is the number I'd stick on the fridge. These are US businesses, so read it as a guide. Pick one job that slows you down, like quotes or chasing invoices, give AI a month on it and count the hours. If it doesn't move, you've found out for the price of a subscription rather than a salary.
Sources
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